On the efficiency of the new Italian Senate and the role of 5 Stars Movement: Comparison among different possible scenarios by means of a virtual Parliament model

TL;DR

This paper uses an agent-based simulation model to analyze the efficiency of the Italian Senate under different political scenarios, focusing on the role of the 5 Stars Movement and the impact of changing majorities.

Contribution

It introduces an innovative agent-based simulation approach to evaluate parliamentary efficiency in Italy's evolving political landscape.

Findings

Changing Senate majorities do not necessarily lead to ungovernability.

The 5 Stars Movement can positively influence parliamentary efficiency.

Optimal choices can mitigate potential inefficiencies in a fragmented parliament.

Abstract

The recent 2013 Italian elections are over and the situation that President Napolitano will have to settle soon for the formation of the new government is not the simplest one. After twenty years of bipolarism (more or less effective), where we were accustomed to a tight battle between two great political coalitions, the center-right and center-left, now, in the new Parliament, we have four political formations. But is it really this result, as it would seem to suggest our common sense, the prelude to an inevitable phase of ungovernability? Can a Parliament with changing majorities in Senate to be as efficient as a Parliament with a large majority in both the Houses? In this short note we will try to answer these questions going beyond common sense and analyzing the current political situation by means of a scientific, original and innovative instrument, i.e. an "agent-based simulation". We show that the situation is not so dramatic as it sounds, but it contains within itself potential positive aspects, as long as one makes the most appropriate choices.