On the Prediction of the Occurence of dates of GLEs

TL;DR

This paper demonstrates that despite their seemingly random nature, GLEs can be predicted with reasonable accuracy in advance, aiding space weather hazard mitigation.

Contribution

The study introduces a novel method for predicting GLE occurrence dates well in advance, surpassing previous real-time warning approaches.

Findings

GLEs can be predicted with relative precision.

The method reproduces past GLE events accurately.

Predictions extend to future solar cycles.

Abstract

Ground level enhancements (GLEs) are relativistic sol particles measured at ground level by a worldwide network of cosmic ray detectors. These sporadic events are associated with solar flares and are assumed to be of a quasi-random nature. Their study gives us information about their source and propagation processes, about the maximum capacity of the sun as a particle accelerator engine, about the magnetic structure of the medium traversed, etc. Space vehicles may be damaged by this kind of radiation, as well as electric transformers and gas pipes at high latitudes. As a result, their prediction has turned out to be very important, but because of their random occurrence, up to now few efforts to this end have been made. The results of these efforts have been limited to possible warnings in real time, just before GLE occurrence, but no specific dates have been predicted well enough in advance to prevent possible hazards. In this study we show that, in spite of the quasi-stochastic nature of GLEs, it is possible to predict them with relative precision, even for future solar cycles. We reproduce previous GLE events and present results for future events.