Statistical and Numerical Study of Asteroid Orbital Uncertainty

TL;DR

This paper analyzes asteroid orbital uncertainties using statistical methods and simulations, comparing database parameters and measurement impacts to improve orbit accuracy for various scientific and practical applications.

Contribution

It provides a comprehensive analysis of asteroid orbit uncertainties, comparing database parameters and assessing measurement impacts with statistical and simulation methods.

Findings

Uncertainty parameters correlate with asteroid characteristics.

Simulations show measurement types significantly affect orbit accuracy.

Database parameters can be validated and improved through statistical analysis.

Abstract

The knowledge of the orbit or the ephemeris uncertainty of asteroid presents a particular interest for various purposes. These quantities are for instance useful for recovering asteroids, for identifying lost asteroids or for planning stellar occultation campaigns. They are also needed to estimate the close approach of Near-Earth asteroids, and subsequent risk of collision. Ephemeris accuracy can also be used for instrument calibration purposes or for scientific applications. Asteroid databases provide information about the uncertainty of the orbits allowing the measure of the quality of an orbit. The aims of this paper is to analyse these different uncertainty parameters and to estimate the impact of the different measurements on the uncertainty of orbits. We particularly deal with two main databases ASTORB and MPCORB providing uncertainty parameters for asteroid orbits. Statistical methods are used in order to estimate orbital uncertainty and compare with parameters from databases. Simulations are also generated to deal with specific measurements such as future Gaia or present radar measurements. Relations between the uncertainty parameter and the characteristics of the asteroid (orbital arc, absolute magnitude, ...) are highlighted. Moreover, a review of the different measuments are compiled and the impact of these measures on the accuracy of the orbit is also estimated.