MIDAS - An Influence Diagram for Management of Mildew in Winter Wheat

TL;DR

This paper introduces a decision support system using an influence diagram to optimize mildew management in winter wheat, addressing uncertainties and multiple decision points.

Contribution

It presents a novel influence diagram-based prototype for mildew management, incorporating practical and theoretical insights into decision-making under uncertainty.

Findings

Effective timing and dosing recommendations for mildew control

Handling of stochastic and incomplete information in decision models

Practical experience with prototype implementation

Abstract

We present a prototype of a decision support system for management of the fungal disease mildew in winter wheat. The prototype is based on an influence diagram which is used to determine the optimal time and dose of mildew treatments. This involves multiple decision opportunities over time, stochasticity, inaccurate information and incomplete knowledge. The paper describes the practical and theoretical problems encountered during the construction of the influence diagram, and also the experience with the prototype.