An outlook on event rates of induced earth quakes in the Netherlands: a preliminary analysis

TL;DR

This study analyzes the increasing earthquake rates in the Netherlands due to natural gas extraction, finding exponential growth in event counts since 2001 and predicting a doubling time of 6.2 years, with no clear trend in quake magnitudes.

Contribution

It provides a model-independent analysis of earthquake event growth and links it to pressure drops caused by gas extraction, offering new insights into earthquake dynamics in the region.

Findings

Earthquake event counts grow exponentially since 2001.

Doubling time of earthquake frequency is approximately 6.2 years.

No clear trend observed in earthquake magnitudes.

Abstract

The increasing rate in earth quakes in the Netherlands is attributed to the enhanced depletion of Groningen natural gas, currently at a rate of 50 billion m3 per year. We performed a model-independent analysis of the earth quake event counts in KNMI data. We find an exponential growth since 2001 with a standard deviation of 0.37% and a doubling time of 6.2 years, giving rise to one event per day in 2025. A trend in the magnitude of the quakes is indiscernible. There is no apparent sensisitivity to NAM pruduction of natural gas, which increased linearly with a standard deviation of 9.4% over the last decade. We identify the earth quakes with an avalanche triggered by a pressure drop, currently 50% away from the equilibrium pressure at the depth of 3 km. Re-establishing pressure equilibrium will proceed with an anticipated drop in soil surface up to a few meters.