Planetary harmonics in the historical Hungarian aurora record (1523-1960)

TL;DR

This study analyzes Hungarian aurora records from 1523-1960, revealing planetary harmonic cycles that influence solar activity and auroras, and uses these to forecast future solar minima and maxima.

Contribution

It identifies specific planetary harmonic frequencies in aurora data and demonstrates their use in reconstructing and forecasting solar activity beyond direct observations.

Findings

Four major multidecadal cycles identified at 42.85, 57.13, 85.7, and 171.4 years.

Harmonic models successfully reconstruct past solar activity and predict future minima and maxima.

Solar activity shows modulation by planetary gravitational and magnetic forces.

Abstract

The historical Hungarian auroral record extends from 1523 to 1960 and is longer than the sunspot record. Harmonic analysis reveals four major multidecadal secular cycles forming an approximate harmonic set at periods of 42.85, 57.13, 85.7 and 171.4 years. These four frequencies are very close to the four major heliospheric oscillations relative to the center of mass of the solar system caused by Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune. Similar frequencies are found in solar radiation models based on long cosmogenic isotope records (Steinhilber et al. 2012) and in long records of naked-eye sunspot observations (Vaquero et al., 2002). Harmonic regression models are used to reconstruct and forecast aurora and solar activity for the period 1956-2050. The model predicts: (1) the multidecadal solar minimum in the 1970s that is also observed in the sunspot record; (2) a solar maximum in 2000-2002 that is observed in the ACRIM total solar irradiance satellite composite; (3) a prolonged solar minimum centered in the 2030s. These findings support a hypothesis that the Sun, the heliosphere and the terrestrial magnetosphere are partially modulated by planetary gravitational and magnetic forces synchronized to planetary oscillations, as also found in other recent publications (Scafetta, 2010, 2012a, 2012c, 2012d; Abreu et al., 2012; Tan & Cheng, 2012).