Elections, Protest, and Alternation of Power

TL;DR

This paper models elections as signals of incumbent popularity and explores how protests and rule-following behaviors can coexist, leading to different patterns of power alternation in democracies and semi-democracies.

Contribution

It introduces a minimal model where electoral rules and protests jointly determine power transitions, highlighting the role of multiple equilibria and informational signals.

Findings

Electoral rules can serve as focal points for protests.

Protests often center around electoral fraud accusations.

Peaceful turnover occurs in democracies, while semi-democracies require street protests.

Abstract

Despite many examples to the contrary, most models of elections assume that rules determining the winner will be followed. We present a model where elections are solely a public signal of the incumbent popularity, and citizens can protests against leaders that do not step down from power. In this minimal setup, rule-based alternation of power as well as "semi-democratic" alternation of power independent of electoral rules can both arise in equilibrium. Compliance with electoral rules requires there to be multiple equilibria in the protest game, where the electoral rule serves as a focal point spurring protest against losers that do not step down voluntarily. Such multiplicity is possible when elections are informative and citizens not too polarized. Extensions to the model are consistent with the facts that protests often center around accusations of electoral fraud and that in the democratic case turnover is peaceful while semi-democratic turnover often requires citizens to actually take to the streets.