On Possible Influence of Space Weather on Agricultural Markets: Necessary Conditions and Probable Scenarios
Lev Pustilnik, Gregory Yom Din

TL;DR
This study explores the potential influence of space weather on agricultural markets by identifying necessary conditions, describing possible scenarios, and analyzing historical data to find statistical links between solar activity and market fluctuations.
Contribution
It introduces a framework for understanding how space weather could affect agricultural markets through local weather sensitivity and market isolation, supported by historical statistical analysis.
Findings
Reliable correlation between space weather and price hikes in medieval European markets.
Persistent effects of space weather on modern U.S. durum wheat prices.
Statistically significant links between solar activity and famine-related events in Iceland.
Abstract
We present the results of study of a possible relationship between the space weather and terrestrial markets of agricultural products. It is shown that to implement the possible effect of space weather on the terrestrial harvests and prices, a simultaneous fulfillment of three conditions is required: 1) sensitivity of local weather (cloud cover, atmospheric circulation) to the state of space weather; 2) sensitivity of the area of specific agricultural crops to the weather anomalies (belonging to the area of risk farming); 3) relative isolation of the market, making it difficult to damp the price hikes by the external food supplies. Four possible scenarios of the market response to the modulations of local terrestrial weather via the solar activity are described. The data sources and analysis methods applied to detect this relationship are characterized. We describe the behavior of 22…
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Taxonomy
TopicsFood Industry and Aquatic Biology · Market Dynamics and Volatility
