Perspectives on effectively constraining the location of a massive trans-Plutonian object with the New Horizons spacecraft: a sensitivity analysis

TL;DR

This paper analyzes how the New Horizons spacecraft's precise radio tracking can constrain the location of a hypothetical massive trans-Plutonian object, assessing detectability and implications for physics and Solar System architecture.

Contribution

It provides a sensitivity analysis showing the potential to detect or rule out distant massive objects using New Horizons data.

Findings

Objects of 0.7 Earth masses at 100-200 au are detectable within 6 years.

Objects of 5 Jupiter masses at 10,000-20,000 au could be constrained to be beyond 60,000 au.

Range residuals of 10 m would limit the possible location of such objects.

Abstract

The radio tracking apparatus of the New Horizons spacecraft, currently traveling to the Pluto system where its arrival is scheduled for July 2015, should be able to reach an accuracy of 10 m (range) and 0.1 mm s^-1 (range-rate) over distances up to 50 au. This should allow to effectively constrain the location of a putative trans-Plutonian massive object, dubbed Planet X (PX) hereafter, whose existence has recently been postulated for a variety of reasons connected with, e.g., the architecture of the Kuiper belt and the cometary flux from the Oort cloud. Traditional scenarios involve a rock-ice planetoid with mX = 0.7mE at some 100 - 200 au, or a Jovian body with mX = 5mJ at about 10,000 - 20,000 au; as a result of our preliminary sensitivity analysis, they should be detectable by New Horizons since they would impact its range at a km level or so over a time span six years long. Conversely, range residuals statistically compatible with zero having an amplitude of 10 m would imply that PX, if it exists, could not be located at less than about 4,500 au (mX = 0.7mE) or 60,000 au (mX = 5mJ), thus making a direct detection quite demanding with the present-day technologies. As a consequence, it would be appropriate to rename such a remote body as Telisto. Also fundamental physics would benefit from this analysis since certain subtle effects predicted by MOND for the deep Newtonian regions of our Solar System are just equivalent to those of a distant pointlike mass.