How relevant is the predictive power of the h-index? A case study of the time-dependent Hirsch index

TL;DR

This study investigates the predictive limitations of the h-index, revealing that its growth often depends on citations to older publications, which hampers its effectiveness in forecasting future scientific productivity.

Contribution

The paper provides empirical evidence that the h-index's growth is influenced by old citations, challenging its reliability as a predictive metric.

Findings

h-index growth often depends on old publications

Difficulty in using h-index for future prediction

Empirical analysis of citation patterns

Abstract

The h-index has been shown to have predictive power. Here I report results of an empirical study showing that the increase of the h-index with time often depends for a long time on citations to rather old publications. This inert behavior of the h-index means that it is difficult to use it as a measure for predicting future scientific output.