Week 52 Influenza Forecast for the 2012-2013 U.S. Season

TL;DR

This paper presents weekly influenza forecasts for the 2012-2013 U.S. season, demonstrating real-time prediction capabilities and analyzing results from multiple recent weeks to inform public health responses.

Contribution

It provides near real-time influenza forecasts for U.S. municipalities during the 2012-2013 season, including analysis of forecast accuracy over five weeks.

Findings

Forecasts showed varying accuracy across weeks

Real-time data assimilation improved forecast timeliness

Results support utility of weekly influenza predictions

Abstract

This document is another installment in a series of near real-time weekly influenza forecasts made during the 2012-2013 influenza season. Here we present some of the results of forecasts initiated following assimilation of observations for Week 52 (i.e. the forecast begins December 30, 2012) for municipalities in the United States. The forecasts were made on January 4, 2013. Results from forecasts initiated the five previous weeks (Weeks 47-51) are also presented.