Current challenges for preseismic electromagnetic emissions: shedding light from micro-scale plastic flow, granular packings, phase transitions and self-affinity notion of fracture process

TL;DR

This paper investigates electromagnetic precursors to earthquakes by integrating recent advances in fracture physics, phase transitions, and granular material science to establish criteria and models for their detection and interpretation.

Contribution

It introduces a three-stage model for earthquake generation based on preseismic EM emissions and clarifies paradoxical features through new scientific insights.

Findings

Established strict criteria for EM anomaly classification as preseismic

Explained paradoxical EM features with fracture and phase transition theories

Proposed a real-time monitoring approach for earthquake prediction

Abstract

Are there credible electromagnetic (EM) EQ precursors? This a question debated in the scientific community and there may be legitimate reasons for the critical views. The negative view concerning the existence of EM precursors is enhanced by features that accompany their observation which are considered as paradox ones, namely, these signals: (i) are not observed at the time of EQs occurrence and during the aftershock period, (ii) are not accompanied by large precursory strain changes, (iii) are not accompanied by simultaneous geodetic or seismological precursors and (v) their traceability is considered problematic. In this work, the detected candidate EM precursors are studied through a shift in thinking towards the basic science findings relative to granular packings, micron-scale plastic flow, interface depinning, fracture size effects, concepts drawn from phase transitions, self-affine notion of fracture and faulting process, universal features of fracture surfaces, recent high quality laboratory studies, theoretical models and numerical simulations. Strict criteria are established for the definition of an emerged EM anomaly as a preseismic one, while, precursory EM features, which have been considered as paradoxes, are explained. A three-stage model for EQ generation by means of preseismic fracture-induced EM emissions is proposed. The claim that the observed EM precursors may permit a real-time and step-by-step monitoring of the EQ generation is tested.