The false positive rate of Kepler and the occurrence of planets

TL;DR

This paper estimates the false positive rate of Kepler planet candidates and quantifies the occurrence rate of small, Earth-sized planets around main-sequence stars using simulations and observational data.

Contribution

It provides the first detailed estimate of Kepler's false positive rate and a robust measurement of Earth-sized planet occurrence without prior assumptions.

Findings

False positive rate of Kepler is 9.4%.

16.5% of FGK stars host Earth-sized planets within 85 days.

Occurrence rate of Earth-sized planets is independent of spectral type.

Abstract

The Kepler Mission is uniquely suited to study the frequencies of extrasolar planets. This goal requires knowledge of the incidence of false positives such as eclipsing binaries in the background of the targets, or physically bound to them, which can mimic the photometric signal of a transiting planet. We perform numerical simulations to predict the occurrence of astrophysical false positives detectable by the Mission, and quantify the fraction of them that would pass the Kepler candidate vetting procedure. By comparing their distribution with that of the Kepler Objects of Interest detected during the first six quarters of operation of the spacecraft, we infer the false positive rate of Kepler and study its dependence on spectral type, candidate planet size, and orbital period. We find that the global false positive rate of Kepler is 9.4 %, peaking for giant planets (6-22 Earth radii) at 17.7 %, reaching a low of 6.7 % for small Neptunes (2-4 Earth radii), and increasing again for Earth-size planets (0.8-1.25 Earth radii) to 12.3 %. Most importantly, we also quantify and characterize the distribution and rate of occurrence of planets down to Earth size with no prior assumptions on their frequency, by subtracting from the population of actual Kepler candidates our simulated population of astrophysical false positives. We find that 16.5 +/- 3.6 % of main-sequence FGK stars have at least one planet between 0.8 and 1.25 Earth radii with orbital periods up to 85 days. There is no significant dependence of the rates of planet occurrence between 0.8 and 4 Earth radii with spectral type. In the process, we derive also a prescription for the signal recovery rate of Kepler that enables a good match to both the KOI size and orbital period distribution, as well as their signal-to-noise distribution.