From Qualitative to Quantitative Probabilistic Networks

TL;DR

This paper introduces a new semi-qualitative probabilistic network that combines signs and numbers, along with an inference algorithm, enabling stepwise quantification and early detection of modeling issues.

Contribution

It extends qualitative networks by integrating quantitative information and provides an inference method for gradual network quantification.

Findings

Enables stepwise probabilistic network quantification.

Facilitates early detection of modeling inadequacies.

Supports combining qualitative and quantitative information.

Abstract

Quantification is well known to be a major obstacle in the construction of a probabilistic network, especially when relying on human experts for this purpose. The construction of a qualitative probabilistic network has been proposed as an initial step in a network s quantification, since the qualitative network can be used TO gain preliminary insight IN the projected networks reasoning behaviour. We extend on this idea and present a new type of network in which both signs and numbers are specified; we further present an associated algorithm for probabilistic inference. Building upon these semi-qualitative networks, a probabilistic network can be quantified and studied in a stepwise manner. As a result, modelling inadequacies can be detected and amended at an early stage in the quantification process.