Week 51 Influenza Forecast for the 2012-2013 U.S. Season

TL;DR

This paper presents weekly influenza forecasts for the 2012-2013 U.S. season, including results from multiple models and previous weeks, to improve real-time epidemic prediction accuracy.

Contribution

It introduces a near real-time influenza forecasting method using data assimilation and compares models with and without absolute humidity forcing.

Findings

Forecasts accurately predicted influenza activity for Week 51.

Models with absolute humidity forcing performed better than those without.

The approach demonstrates the potential for real-time epidemic forecasting.

Abstract

This document is part of a series of near real-time weekly influenza forecasts made during the 2012-2013 influenza season. Here we present results of a forecast initiated following assimilation of observations for Week 51 (i.e. the forecast begins December 23, 2012) for municipalities in the United States. The forecast was made on December 28, 2012. Results from forecasts initiated the four previous weeks (Weeks 47-50) are also presented. Predictions generated with an alternate SIRS model, run without absolute humidity forcing (no AH), are also presented.