Modeling page-view dynamics on Wikipedia

TL;DR

This paper presents a model for predicting Wikipedia page-view dynamics, demonstrating that popularity decays exponentially over time when circadian user cycles are considered, validated through empirical data.

Contribution

The study introduces a simple Poisson process-based model that accurately captures the exponential decay of Wikipedia page views, accounting for user circadian rhythms.

Findings

Popularity decays exponentially with time.

Circadian cycles significantly influence page-view dynamics.

Model validated with empirical measurements.

Abstract

We introduce a model for predicting page-view dynamics of promoted content. The regularity of the content promotion process on Wikipedia provides excellent experimental conditions which favour detailed modelling. We show that the popularity of an article featured on Wikipedia's main page decays exponentially in time if the circadian cycles of the users are taken into account. Our model can be explained as the result of individual Poisson processes and is validated through empirical measurements. It provides a simpler explanation for the evolution of content popularity than previous studies.