Geomagnetic Earthquake Precursors Improvement Formulation on the basis of SKO (Skopje) and PAG (Intermagnet) Geomagnetic Data

TL;DR

This study demonstrates that analyzing local geomagnetic field variations can reliably serve as an imminent precursor for regional earthquakes, with a time window of approximately ±2.7 days, based on data from fluxgate magnetometers and tide analysis.

Contribution

It introduces a method combining geomagnetic, tide, and seismic data analysis to improve earthquake prediction accuracy and timing.

Findings

Geomagnetic field jumps correlate with seismic activity.

Earth tide extrema are linked to earthquake timing within ±2.7 days.

Validation across multiple magnetometer stations confirms the method's reliability.

Abstract

In this paper we show that the simple analysis of the local geomagnetic field behaviour can serve as reliable imminent precursor for regional seismic activity increasing. As the first step the problem was investigated using one- component Dubna fluxgate magnetometer. The result of 2001-2004 Sofia monitoring confirmed many old papers for connection between Earth tide (Sun- Moon tides as earthquakes trigger) and jump (Geomagnetic quake) of daily averaged one minute standart deviation of the geomagnetic field. The second step (2004-present), which included analisys of three-component Danish fluxgate magnetometer data, worked in Skopje Seismological observatory, confirmed the first step result. The analysis of INTERMAGNET data stations around which was happened stronger earthquakes also confirmed our result. The distribution of time difference between the times of such earthquakes and local daily averaged tide vector movement for impending tide extreme confirms our estimate that the increasing seismicity is realized in time window about +/- 2.7 days. The Complex program for researching the possibility for when, where and how earthquakes prediction is proposed as well as the short description of FORTRAN codes for analysis of earthquakes, geomagnetic and tide data, their correlations and visualization.