Towards a system for sea state forecasts in the Bulgarian Black Sea coastal zone: the case of the storm of 07-08 february 2012

TL;DR

This paper discusses the development of a coastal sea state forecasting system for the Bulgarian Black Sea, focusing on the implementation of wave models to improve storm predictions and early warnings.

Contribution

It introduces an enhanced forecasting system combining WAVEWATCH III and SWAN models for detailed coastal wave predictions in the Bulgarian Black Sea.

Findings

Successful integration of SWAN for coastal wave forecasts

Case study of the 2012 storm demonstrating system capabilities

Improved early warning potential for severe storms

Abstract

The paper describes the existing operational sea state forecast system of NIMH- BAS for sea state in the Black Sea and our current progress on the implementation of an additional component for the forecasts of wind waves in the Bulgarian coastal zone. Wind Waves and especially the extreme ones, occurring during severe storms are a major hazard for the coastal zone, causing significant damages to the infrastructure, threat for the human lives and also causing significant damages to the protected areas around the coast. The numerical model WAVEWATCH III is in use for wind waves forecasts for the entire Black Sea with horizontal resolution of 1/8 degree (roughly 14 kilometers), which is sufficient for the open Sea, but not enough for a detailed coastal forecast. For the purposes of the coastal forecasts and early warnings in case of severe storms we decided to implement SWAN (Simulating the Waves Near Shore)- development of TU- DELFT. In this paper we will describe the brief details about the coastal sea state forecasting system of NIMH- BAS and a case study of the storm of 07-08 February 2012, which is the severest storm in our coastal area for the last decade (and probably longer period).