The Greek Public Debt Path: From Zero to Infinity

TL;DR

This paper models Greece's public debt as an exponential curve fitting problem, revealing that without radical growth or debt write-offs, long-term servicing is impossible.

Contribution

It introduces a curve fitting approach to analyze Greek public debt dynamics using exponential models and Eurostat data.

Findings

Greek debt follows an exponential growth pattern

Long-term debt servicing requires radical growth or debt write-offs

Model predicts unsustainable debt trajectory without intervention

Abstract

The aim of the present article is to treat the Greek public debt issue strictly as a curve fitting problem. Thus, based on Eurostat data and using the Mathematica technical computing software, an exponential function that best fits the data is determined modelling how the Greek public debt expands with time. Exploring the main features of this best fit model, it is concluded that the Greek public debt cannot possibly be serviced in the long run unless a radical growth is implemented and/or part of the debt is written off.