Can Superflares Occur on Our Sun?

TL;DR

This paper investigates the potential for superflares, similar to those observed on Sun-like stars, to occur on our current Sun by analyzing observational data and applying theoretical estimates of solar magnetic activity.

Contribution

It provides a theoretical assessment of the likelihood of superflares on the Sun based on recent stellar observations and solar dynamo models.

Findings

Superflares with energies of 10^34 erg could occur on the Sun.

Superflares with energies of 10^35 erg are less likely but not impossible.

The occurrence frequency of superflares on the Sun is estimated to be once in several thousand years.

Abstract

Recent observations of solar type stars with the Kepler satellite by Maehara et al. have revealed the existence of superflares (with energy of 10^33 - 10^35 erg) on Sun-like stars, which are similar to our Sun in their surface temperature (5600 K - 6000 K) and slow rotation (rotational period > 10 days). From the statistical analysis of these superflares, it was found that superflares with energy 10^34 erg occur once in 800 years and superflares with 10^35 erg occur once in 5000 years on Sun-like stars. In this paper, we examine whether superflares with energy of 10^33 - 10^35 erg could occur on the present Sun through the use of simple order-of-magnitude estimates based on current ideas relating to the mechanisms of the solar dynamo.