Provocative radio transients and base rate bias: a Bayesian argument for conservatism

TL;DR

This paper discusses how base rate bias affects the interpretation of transient radio signals in the search for extraterrestrial intelligence, advocating for a conservative approach in signal inclusion to avoid false positives.

Contribution

It introduces a Bayesian framework to account for base rate bias in classifying transient signals, emphasizing cautious data inclusion in SETI research.

Findings

Base rate bias can significantly influence signal classification decisions.

A Bayesian approach helps mitigate false positives in SETI signal analysis.

Conservative data inclusion improves reliability of extraterrestrial signal detection.

Abstract

Most searches for alien radio transmission have focused on finding omni-directional or purposefully earth-directed beams of enduring duration. However, most of the interesting signals so far detected have been transient and non-repeatable in nature. These signals could very well be the first data points in an ever-growing data base of such signals used to construct a probabilistic argument for the existence of extraterrestrial intelligence. This paper looks at the effect base rate bias could have on deciding which signals to include in such an archive based upon the likely assumption that our ability to discern natural from artificial signals will be less than perfect.