Occurrence rate of extreme magnetic storms

TL;DR

This study analyzes the occurrence rates of extreme magnetic storms caused by various interplanetary drivers from 1976 to 2000, estimating the frequency of historic extreme events like the Carrington storm.

Contribution

It provides a statistical comparison of storm probabilities induced by different solar wind structures and estimates the frequency of extreme historical storms.

Findings

Magnetic clouds have the highest storm probability among drivers.

Extreme storms like the Carrington event occur approximately once every 500 years.

Probabilities for other drivers are significantly lower than for magnetic clouds.

Abstract

Statistical analysis of occurrence rate of magnetic storms induced by different types of interplanetary drivers is made on the basis of OMNI data for period 1976-2000. Using our catalog of large scale types of solar wind streams we study storms induced by interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICME) (separately magnetic clouds (MC) and Ejecta) and both types of compressed regions: corotating interaction regions (CIR) and Sheaths. For these types of drivers we calculate integral probabilities of storms with minimum Dst < -50, -70, -100, -150, and -200 nT. The highest probability in this interval of Dst is observed for MC, probabilities for other drivers are 3-10 times lower than for MC. Extrapolation of obtained results to extreme storms shows that such a magnetic storm as Carrington storm in 1859 with Dst = -1760 nT is observed on the Earth with frequency 1 event during ~500 year.