On the Risk Management with Application of Econophysics Analysis in Central Banks and Financial Institutions

TL;DR

This paper explores how econophysics can enhance risk management in financial systems by introducing new nonlinear dynamic volatility models and analyzing their limitations within nonlinear financial environments.

Contribution

It proposes a novel nonlinear dynamic chaos volatility model and discusses integrating econophysics with traditional econometric risk management approaches.

Findings

Introduction of a new nonlinear dynamic chaos volatility model

Analysis of limitations in GARCH and similar models

Emphasis on nonlinearities in risk calculation

Abstract

The purpose of this research article is to discover how the econophysics analysis can complement the econometrics models in application to the risk management in the central banks and financial institutions, operating within the nonlinear dynamical financial system. We consider the modern risk management models and show the appropriate techniques to calculate the various existing risks in the finances. We make a few comments on the possible limitations in the models of statistical modeling of volatility such as the Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, because of the nonlinearities appearance in the nonlinear dynamical financial systems. We propose that the various types of nonlinearities, which can originate in the financial and economical systems, have to be taken to the detailed consideration during the Cost of Capital calculation in the finances and economics. We propose the new theory of nonlinear dynamic volatilities and the new nonlinear dynamic chaos (NDC) volatility model for the statistical modeling of financial volatility with the aim to determine the Value at Risk.