Equation of States for Elections

TL;DR

This paper investigates the quantitative relationship between electoral votes and popular votes in US presidential elections from 1932 to 2004, revealing a consistent pattern that may also explain election results in Taiwan.

Contribution

It introduces a new equation of states linking electoral and popular votes, providing a quantitative framework for understanding election outcomes.

Findings

Identified a consistent relationship between electoral and popular votes in US elections.

The curve explains anomalies like Al Gore's 2000 loss despite popular vote lead.

Applicable to elections in Taiwan, suggesting broader relevance.

Abstract

In the US 2008 presidential election, Barack Obama was elected as the 44th president of United States, winning the 53% of popular votes and 68% of electoral votes; in the election of 2000, Al Gore lost the election receiving 49 % of electoral votes, although he had more popular votes. It is generally believed that the electoral votes and the popular votes are correlated; however the detailed quantitative relationship for these two quantities is unclear. Here, we found an interesting relationship between fractions of electoral votes and fractions of popular votes in the presidential elections of the United States by examining the election results from 1932 to 2004. Moreover, this curve could provide an interesting explanation for the results of other elections that have taken place in Taiwan.