Modelling grand minima of solar activity using a flux transport dynamo model

TL;DR

This paper uses a flux transport dynamo model to simulate and explain the occurrence of grand minima in solar activity, such as the Maunder minimum, by incorporating fluctuations in the poloidal field and meridional circulation.

Contribution

It introduces a stochastic flux transport dynamo model that reproduces grand minima by modeling fluctuations based on historical data.

Findings

Simulated grand minima align closely with observed data.

Fluctuations in poloidal field or meridional circulation trigger grand minima.

Model successfully reproduces the frequency and duration of grand minima.

Abstract

The occurrence of grand minima like the Maunder minimum is an intriguing aspect of the sunspot cycle. We use the flux transport dynamo model to explain the grand minima, showing that they arise when either the poloidal field or the meridional circulation falls to a sufficiently low value due to fluctuations. Assuming these fluctuations to be Gaussian and determining the various parameters from the data of the last 28 cycles, we carry on a dynamo simulation with both these fluctuations. The results are remarkably close to the observational data.