Finding {\eta} Car Analogs in Nearby Galaxies Using Spitzer: I. Candidate Selection

TL;DR

This study searches for analogs of the massive star {\

Contribution

It introduces a method using Spitzer IRAC data to identify potential {\

Findings

34 candidates identified with IR signatures similar to {\

Most candidates are likely not true {\

Estimated eruption rate is less than the core-collapse supernova rate

Abstract

The late-stage evolution of the most massive stars such as {\eta} Carinae is controlled by the effects of mass loss, which may be dominated by poorly understood eruptive mass ejections. Understanding this population is challenging because no true analogs of {\eta} Car have been clearly identified in the Milky Way or other galaxies. We utilize Spitzer IRAC images of 7 nearby (=<4 Mpc) galaxies to search for such analogs. We find 34 candidates with a flat or rising mid-IR spectral energy distributions towards longer mid-infrared wavelengths that emit 10^5 L_sun in the IRAC bands (3.6 to 8.0 micron) and are not known to be background sources. Based on our estimates for the expected number of background sources, we expect that follow-up observations will show that most of these candidates are not dust enshrouded massive stars, with an expectation of only 6+-6 surviving candidates. Since we would detect true analogs of {\eta} Car for roughly 200 years post-eruption, this implies that the rate of eruptions like {\eta} Car is less than the ccSN rate. It is possible, however, that every M > 40 M_sun star undergoes such eruptions given our initial results. In Paper II we will characterize the candidates through further analysis and follow-up observations, and there is no barrier to increasing the galaxy sample by an order of magnitude.