Record occurrence and record values in daily and monthly temperatures
Gregor Wergen, Andreas Hense, Joachim Krug

TL;DR
This study investigates the statistics of temperature records in daily and monthly data, using a simple model and real observations to understand the impact of global warming on record-breaking temperatures.
Contribution
It introduces an analysis of record value statistics under a linear warming trend, comparing model predictions with observational data from Europe and the US.
Findings
Summer record temperatures fit the linear drift model well.
Winter temperatures show asymmetry, complicating the model's applicability.
Extreme cold records persist in winter, especially in subpolar regions.
Abstract
We analyze the occurrence and the values of record-breaking temperatures in daily and monthly temperature observations. Our aim is to better understand and quantify the statistics of temperature records in the context of global warming. Similar to earlier work we employ a simple mathematical model of independent and identically distributed random variables with a linearly growing expectation value. This model proved to be useful in predicting the increase (decrease) in upper (lower) temperature records in a warming climate. Using both station and re-analysis data from Europe and the United States we further investigate the statistics of temperature records and the validity of this model. The most important new contribution in this article is an analysis of the statistics of record values for our simple model and European reanalysis data. We estimate how much the mean values and the…
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