Chasing a consistent picture for dark matter direct searches

TL;DR

This study uses Bayesian statistics to evaluate the consistency of dark matter direct detection experiments, finding that most models are inconsistent except for inelastic scattering, which shows some agreement.

Contribution

It provides a rigorous Bayesian analysis of dark matter models against experimental data, quantifying inconsistencies and comparing model plausibility.

Findings

XENON100 challenges DAMA, CoGeNT, CRESST results

Inelastic scattering shows less inconsistency, at about 1 sigma

Elastic scattering remains the most plausible model given current data

Abstract

In this paper we assess the present status of dark matter direct searches by means of Bayesian statistics. We consider three particle physics models for spin-independent dark matter interaction with nuclei: elastic, inelastic and isospin violating scattering. We shortly present the state of the art for the three models, marginalising over experimental systematics and astrophysical uncertainties. Whatever the scenario is, XENON100 appears to challenge the detection region of DAMA, CoGeNT and CRESST. The first aim of this study is to rigorously quantify the significance of the inconsistency between XENON100 data and the combined set of detection (DAMA, CoGeNT and CRESST together), performing two statistical tests based on the Bayesian evidence. We show that XENON100 and the combined set are inconsistent at least at 2 sigma level in all scenarios but inelastic scattering, for which the disagreement drops to 1 sigma level. Secondly we consider only the combined set and hunt the best particle physics model that accounts for the events, using Bayesian model comparison. The outcome between elastic and isospin violating scattering is inconclusive, with the odds 2:1, while inelastic scattering is disfavoured with the odds of 1:32 because of CoGeNT data. Our results are robust under reasonable prior assumptions. We conclude that the simple elastic scattering remains the best model to explain the detection regions, since the data do not support extra free parameters. Present direct searches therefore are not able to constrain the particle physics interaction of the dark matter. The outcome of consistency tests implies that either a better understanding of astrophysical and experimental uncertainties is needed, either the dark matter theoretical model is at odds with the data.