Neutrino masses and cosmological parameters from a Euclid-like survey: Markov Chain Monte Carlo forecasts including theoretical errors

TL;DR

This study forecasts the precision of cosmological parameters and neutrino mass measurements from future Euclid-like surveys using MCMC, accounting for theoretical uncertainties in non-linear galaxy power spectrum modeling.

Contribution

It introduces a comprehensive MCMC forecast method that incorporates two types of theoretical errors, improving predictions for neutrino mass detection in future cosmological surveys.

Findings

Future Euclid-like surveys can measure neutrino mass with errors around 25-32 meV.

Including non-linear scales can improve neutrino mass constraints if theoretical errors are small.

Residual modeling errors significantly impact the sensitivity to neutrino mass measurements.

Abstract

We present forecasts for the accuracy of determining the parameters of a minimal cosmological model and the total neutrino mass based on combined mock data for a future Euclid-like galaxy survey and Planck. We consider two different galaxy surveys: a spectroscopic redshift survey and a cosmic shear survey. We make use of the Monte Carlo Markov Chains (MCMC) technique and assume two sets of theoretical errors. The first error is meant to account for uncertainties in the modelling of the effect of neutrinos on the non-linear galaxy power spectrum and we assume this error to be fully correlated in Fourier space. The second error is meant to parametrize the overall residual uncertainties in modelling the non-linear galaxy power spectrum at small scales, and is conservatively assumed to be uncorrelated and to increase with the ratio of a given scale to the scale of non-linearity. It hence increases with wavenumber and decreases with redshift. With these two assumptions for the errors and assuming further conservatively that the uncorrelated error rises above 2% at k = 0.4 h/Mpc and z = 0.5, we find that a future Euclid-like cosmic shear/galaxy survey achieves a 1-sigma error on Mnu close to 32 meV/25 meV, sufficient for detecting the total neutrino mass with good significance. If the residual uncorrelated errors indeed rises rapidly towards smaller scales in the non-linear regime as we have assumed here then the data on non-linear scales does not increase the sensitivity to the total neutrino mass. Assuming instead a ten times smaller theoretical error with the same scale dependence, the error on the total neutrino mass decreases moderately from sigma(Mnu) = 18 meV to 14 meV when mildly non-linear scales with 0.1 h/Mpc < k < 0.6 h/Mpc are included in the analysis of the galaxy survey data.