Does Global seismic energy release increase? An analysis based on the Lithospheric Seismic Energy Flow Model (LSEFM). The case of mega - earthquakes (M > 9)

TL;DR

This study analyzes global seismic energy release over the last century, revealing patterns linked to mega-earthquakes and suggesting an increased likelihood of future large seismic events based on a new energy flow model.

Contribution

It introduces the Lithospheric Seismic Energy Flow Model (LSEFM) for global seismic energy analysis and links seismic patterns to the occurrence of mega-earthquakes.

Findings

GCSER oscillates with a 60-year period and increasing amplitude.

Recent mega-earthquakes correlate with amplitude peaks in GCSER.

The LSEFM accurately estimates the magnitude of recent mega-earthquakes.

Abstract

In this work the data of the earthquake catalog of the NOAA, National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) are processed in terms of global seismic energy release. The determined Global Cumulative Seismic Energy Release (GCSER) graph as a function of time, is analyzed in the magnitude domain (discrete energy windows). Characteristic components of the analyzed graph are: its accelerated deformation character observed for energy windows lower than the background seismicity (M = 7.0 - 7.5), its lock state that started on 1923 and long seismic quiescence periods that preceded recent mega - earthquakes. The background GCSER value oscillates during the last century with a period of 60 years and with increasing amplitude. The recent (1952 - 2012) 5 mega - earthquakes are closely related to the amplitude increase of the GCSER oscillation. Hence, it is suggested that more mega - earthquakes are probable due to occur in the future. A global mechanism is postulated for the generation of the mega - earthquakes based on the principles of the non-linearity of the earth, the Markovitz wobble and the expanding earth. The determination of the magnitude of the 5 recent mega - earthquakes by the Lithospheric Seismic Energy Flow Model (LSEFM) method indicates that the latter is globally applicable. Key words: Global seismicity, expanding earth, mega - earthquakes, Markowitz wobble, background seismicity, magnitude determination