Real time assimilation of HF radar currents into a coastal ocean model

TL;DR

This paper presents a real-time coastal current forecasting system that integrates high frequency radar data with an ocean model using optimal interpolation, providing timely and accurate analyses and forecasts for vessel traffic management.

Contribution

It introduces a novel assimilation method using model-derived spatial covariances and demonstrates its effectiveness in operational coastal current forecasting.

Findings

Good analysis and short-term forecasts achieved

System delivers results within 45 minutes of data acquisition

Significant improvement over non-assimilative model forecasts

Abstract

A real time assimilation and forecasting system for coastal currents is presented. The purpose of the system is to deliver current analyses and forecasts based on assimilation of high frequency radar surface current measurements. The local Vessel Traffic Service monitoring the ship traffic to two oil terminals on the coast of Norway received the analyses and forecasts in real time. A new assimilation method based on optimal interpolation is presented where spatial covariances derived from an ocean model are used instead of simplified mathematical formulations. An array of high frequency radar antennae provide the current measurements. A suite of nested ocean models comprise the model system. The observing system is found to yield good analyses and short range forecasts that are significantly improved compared to a model twin without assimilation. The system is fast; analysis and six hour forecasts are ready at the Vessel Traffic Service 45 minutes after acquisition of radar measurements.