The Doomsday Argument in Many Worlds

TL;DR

This paper extends the Doomsday Argument within a many worlds framework, suggesting that our existence in a small civilization implies many civilizations exist and most die out early, which challenges traditional views.

Contribution

It introduces a many worlds perspective to the Doomsday Argument, providing a new interpretation that addresses previous criticisms and alters probability assessments.

Findings

Supports the existence of many civilizations.

Suggests most civilizations end before trillions of people are born.

Strengthens the case for early civilization extinction.

Abstract

You and I are highly unlikely to exist in a civilization that has produced only 70 billion people, yet we find ourselves in just such a civilization. Our circumstance, which seems difficult to explain, is easily accounted for if (1) many other civilizations exist and if (2) nearly all of these civilizations (including our own) die out sooner than usually thought, i.e., before trillions of people are produced. Because the combination of (1) and (2) make our situation likely and alternatives do not, we should drastically increase our belief that (1) and (2) are true. These results follow immediately when considering a many worlds version of the "Doomsday Argument" and are immune to the main criticism of the original Doomsday Argument.