Solar Cycle 24: is the peak coming?

TL;DR

This paper reviews the unusual characteristics of Solar Cycle 24, updates the timing of its peak activity based on recent observations, and discusses implications for solar activity forecasting.

Contribution

It provides an updated prediction of the solar cycle 24 peak timing using recent observational data, highlighting hemispheric differences.

Findings

Northern hemisphere peak occurred in 2011.6

Southern hemisphere peak not yet occurred

Cycle 24 shows unusually low activity

Abstract

Solar cycle activity forecasting, mainly its magnitude and timing, is an essential issue for numerous scientific and technological applications: in fact, during an active solar period, many strong eruptions occur on the Sun with increasing frequency, such as flares, coronal mass ejections, high velocity solar wind photons and particles, which can severely affect the Earth's ionosphere and the geomagnetic field, with impacts on the low atmosphere. Thus it is very important to develop reliable solar cycle prediction methods for the incoming solar activity. The current solar cycle 24 appeared unusual from many points of view: an unusually extended minimum period, and a global low activity compared to those of the previous three or four cycles. Currently, there are many different evidences that the peak in the northern hemisphere already occurred at 2011.6 but not yet in the southern hemisphere. In this brief note we update the peak prediction and its timing, based on the most recent observations.