Systematic uncertainties in long-baseline neutrino oscillations for large $\theta_{13}$

TL;DR

This study evaluates the systematic uncertainties in future long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiments at large , comparing superbeams, beams, and neutrino factories, and assesses their ability to measure the CP-violating phase .

Contribution

It provides a comprehensive, uniform comparison of systematic uncertainties across different experimental setups, highlighting the unique precision capabilities of neutrino factories.

Findings

Neutrino factories can measure  with high precision.

Peak energy beams (   2 GeV) are robust against systematics.

Combining beam and superbeam can self-consistently measure relevant cross sections.

Abstract

We study the physics potential of future long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiments at large $\theta_{13}$, focusing especially on systematic uncertainties. We discuss superbeams, \bbeams, and neutrino factories, and for the first time compare these experiments on an equal footing with respect to systematic errors. We explicitly simulate near detectors for all experiments, we use the same implementation of systematic uncertainties for all experiments, and we fully correlate the uncertainties among detectors, oscillation channels, and beam polarizations as appropriate. As our primary performance indicator, we use the achievable precision in the measurement of the CP violating phase $\deltacp$. We find that a neutrino factory is the only instrument that can measure $\deltacp$ with a precision similar to that of its quark sector counterpart. All neutrino beams operating at peak energies $\gtrsim 2$ GeV are quite robust with respect to systematic uncertainties, whereas especially \bbeams and \thk suffer from large cross section uncertainties in the quasi-elastic regime, combined with their inability to measure the appearance signal cross sections at the near detector. A noteworthy exception is the combination of a $\gamma=100$ \bbeam with an \spl-based superbeam, in which all relevant cross sections can be measured in a self-consistent way. This provides a performance, second only to the neutrino factory. For other superbeam experiments such as \lbno and the setups studied in the context of the \lbne reconfiguration effort, statistics turns out to be the bottleneck. In almost all cases, the near detector is not critical to control systematics since the combined fit of appearance and disappearance data already constrains the impact of systematics to be small provided that the three active flavor oscillation framework is valid.