Keep an Eye on Venezuelan Elections! (Vigilad las elecciones venezolanas)

TL;DR

This paper analyzes Venezuelan elections from 1998 to 2012, finding potential fraud but concluding it likely did not affect past results, though it could be decisive in close future elections.

Contribution

It provides a forensic analysis of Venezuelan elections over 14 years, assessing the impact of possible electoral fraud on election outcomes.

Findings

Potential election fraud exists but did not alter past results.

In close elections like 2012, fraud could be decisive.

Past elections' winners would likely be the same without fraud.

Abstract

Starting with the 2004 recall referendum, an important opposition sector to President Chavez has questioned the integrity of the Venezuelan electoral system, and casts doubt on the legitimacy and impartiality of the upcoming 2012 presidential elections on October 7. After carrying out a forensic analysis on Venezuelan elections and referendums celebrated since 1998 until 2012, we reach two controversial conclusions: on one hand, we cannot rule out the hypothesis of fraud in elections run by the current regime. On the other, if fraud has been committed, it has not been decisive on results of past elections. In other words, the winner would have been the same in clean elections. Only in a scenario of tight results, as 2012 elections could be, fraud would constitute a decisive factor. ---- A partir del refer\'endum revocatorio del 2004, un importante sector opositor al Presidente Ch\'avez ha cuestionado la integridad del sistema electoral venezolano y tiene dudas acerca de la legitimidad e imparcialidad de las futuras elecciones presidenciales del 7 de Octubre del 2012. Practicando un an\'alisis forense a elecciones y refer\'endums venezolanos desde 1998 hasta 2012 llegamos a dos controversiales conclusiones: por un lado, no podemos descartar la hip\'otesis de fraude en comicios administrados por el actual r\'egimen. Por otro lado, de haberse cometido fraude en pasadas elecciones, este no ha sido determinante en los resultados. Es decir, el ganador hubiese sido el mismo en elecciones limpias. S\'olo en un escenario de resultados ajustados, como pudiera ser el 2012, el fraude podr\'ia ser determinante.