Encouraging moderation: Clues from a simple model of ideological conflict

TL;DR

This paper presents a simple opinion spreading model to analyze strategies for promoting moderation, finding that only one approach effectively increases moderates without risking their extinction.

Contribution

It introduces a minimal model of ideological conflict and evaluates seven deradicalization strategies, identifying the most effective method for fostering moderation.

Findings

Only one deradicalization strategy significantly increases moderates.

Most strategies risk extinction of moderate opinions.

The model provides insights into ideological shifts in society.

Abstract

Some of the most pivotal moments in intellectual history occur when a new ideology sweeps through a society, supplanting an established system of beliefs in a rapid revolution of thought. Yet in many cases the new ideology is as extreme as the old. Why is it then that moderate positions so rarely prevail? Here, in the context of a simple model of opinion spreading, we test seven plausible strategies for deradicalizing a society and find that only one of them significantly expands the moderate subpopulation without risking its extinction in the process.