Solar Flare Occurrence Rate and Waiting Time Statistics

TL;DR

This paper applies Renewal Theory to analyze GOES satellite flare data, revealing both long-term solar cycle variations and rapid fluctuations in flare rates, with implications for stochastic models of flare waiting times.

Contribution

It introduces a novel application of Renewal Theory to characterize both slow and fast variations in solar flare occurrence rates from satellite data.

Findings

Detection of rapid, non-stationary flare rate variations on timescales of days to minutes.

Identification of fast fluctuations in flare waiting times consistent with stochastic models.

Evidence of multiple timescale variability in solar flare activity.

Abstract

We use Renewal Theory for the estimation and interpretation of the flare rate from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) soft X-ray flare catalogue. It is found, that in addition to the flare rate variability with the solar cycles, a much faster variation occurs. The fast variation on time scales of days and hours down to minute scale appears to be comparable with time intervals between two successive flares (waiting times). The detected fast non-stationarity of the flaring rate is discussed in the framework of the previously published stochastic models of the waiting time dynamics.