Computational indeterminism in complex models of social systems

TL;DR

This paper discusses how complex social system models with numerous parameters hinder clear cause-and-effect inferences, highlighting limitations in current modeling approaches.

Contribution

It introduces the concept of computational indeterminism, emphasizing the challenges in deriving causal insights from highly parameterized models.

Findings

Complex models often lack causal clarity.

Parameter abundance leads to indeterminism.

Inference about social causality is limited.

Abstract

We argue that complex models with many parameters do not allow to infer about cause and effect.