On the future of astrostatistics: statistical foundations and statistical practice

TL;DR

This paper discusses the future of astrostatistics, emphasizing the need for integrated statistical frameworks that support ongoing discovery processes in astronomy, and highlights recent statistical developments relevant to this field.

Contribution

It advocates for a unified statistical framework for astrostatistics that supports continuous data analysis and discovery, integrating recent statistical advances.

Findings

Highlighting the importance of Bayesian and frequentist synthesis

Emphasizing multilevel models for complex data

Advocating for integrated, chain-like data analysis processes

Abstract

This paper summarizes a presentation for a panel discussion on "The Future of Astrostatistics" held at the Statistical Challenges in Modern Astronomy V conference at Pennsylvania State University in June 2011. I argue that the emerging needs of astrostatistics may both motivate and benefit from fundamental developments in statistics. I highlight some recent work within statistics on fundamental topics relevant to astrostatistical practice, including the Bayesian/frequentist debate (and ideas for a synthesis), multilevel models, and multiple testing. As an important direction for future work in statistics, I emphasize that astronomers need a statistical framework that explicitly supports unfolding chains of discovery, with acquisition, cataloging, and modeling of data not seen as isolated tasks, but rather as parts of an ongoing, integrated sequence of analyses, with information and uncertainty propagating forward and backward through the chain. A prototypical example is surveying of astronomical populations, where source detection, demographic modeling, and the design of survey instruments and strategies all interact.