Around the goal: Examining the effect of the first goal on the second goal in soccer using survival analysis methods

TL;DR

This study applies survival analysis to soccer data to investigate how the timing of the first goal influences the likelihood and timing of the second goal, revealing complex effects based on goal timing.

Contribution

It introduces a Cox model with time-dependent covariates and frailty to analyze goal sequences, adapting survival analysis techniques to soccer data for the first time.

Findings

First goal can either accelerate or delay the second goal.

The probability of scoring a second goal increases as the game progresses.

The effect of the first goal is similar whether scored or conceded.

Abstract

In this paper we apply survival techniques to soccer data, treating a goal scoring as the event of interest. It specifically concerns the relationship between the time of the first goal in the game and the time of the second goal. In order to do so, the relevant survival analysis concepts are readjusted to fit the problem and a Cox model is developed for the hazard function. Attributes such as time dependent covariates and a frailty term are also being considered. We also use a reliable propensity score to summarize the pre-game covariates. The conclusions derived from the results are that a first goal occurrence could either expedite or impede the next goal scoring, depending on the time it was scored. Moreover, once a goal is scored, another goal scoring become more and more likely as the game progresses. Furthermore, the first goal effect is the same whether the goal was scored or conceded.