Peer-to-Peer and Mass Communication Effect on Revolution Dynamics

TL;DR

This paper models revolution dynamics using a minimal Ising model incorporating personal, social, and mass communication influences, providing a comprehensive phase diagram and predictive insights into revolution outcomes.

Contribution

It introduces a novel Ising-based framework that integrates peer-to-peer and mass communication effects into revolution modeling, with an exhaustive solution and phase diagram analysis.

Findings

Rich phase diagram of revolution outcomes

Failure phases linked to individual characteristics

Predictive model for revolution success or failure

Abstract

Revolution dynamics is studied through a minimal Ising model with three main influences (fields): personal conservatism (power-law distributed), inter-personal and group pressure, and a global field incorporating peer-to-peer and mass communications, which is generated bottom-up from the revolutionary faction. A rich phase diagram appears separating possible terminal stages of the revolution, characterizing failure phases by the features of the individuals who had joined the revolution. An exhaustive solution of the model is produced, allowing predictions to be made on the revolution's outcome.