How does the past of a soccer match influence its future?

TL;DR

This paper investigates how the history of a soccer match influences future scoring, revealing deviations from simple models and uncovering hidden complexities in goal dynamics using extensive Bundesliga data.

Contribution

It introduces a framework to identify deviations from Poissonian goal scoring models and analyzes how past match events affect future scoring behavior.

Findings

Deviations from Poissonian behavior are identified in Bundesliga matches.

Previous match events influence future scoring probabilities.

The analysis uncovers hidden complexities in goal scoring dynamics.

Abstract

Scoring goals in a soccer match can be interpreted as a stochastic process. In the most simple description of a soccer match one assumes that scoring goals can be described by a constant goal rate for each team, implying simple Poissonian and Markovian behavior. Here a general framework for the identification of deviations from this behavior is presented. For this endeavor it is essential to formulate an a priori estimate of the expected number of goals per team in a specific match. The analysis scheme is applied to approximately 40 seasons of the German Bundesliga. It is possible to characterize the impact of the previous course of the match on the present match behavior. This allows one to identify interesting generic features about soccer matches and thus to learn about the hidden complexities behind scoring goals.