MAIES: A Tool for DNA Mixture Analysis

TL;DR

MAIES is an expert system that uses probabilistic models and exact inference to analyze DNA mixtures in forensic cases, enabling identification of contributors and prediction of unknown profiles.

Contribution

The paper introduces MAIES, a novel tool employing Gaussian models and a MAP search algorithm for DNA mixture analysis in forensic science.

Findings

Successfully analyzed real-world DNA mixture data

Accurately identified contributors using the system

Predicted unknown DNA profiles effectively

Abstract

We describe an expert system, MAIES, developed for analysing forensic identification problems involving DNA mixture traces using quantitative peak area information. Peak area information is represented by conditional Gaussian distributions, and inference based on exact junction tree propagation ascertains whether individuals, whose profiles have been measured, have contributed to the mixture. The system can also be used to predict DNA profiles of unknown contributors by separating the mixture into its individual components. The use of the system is illustrated with an application to a real world example. The system implements a novel MAP (maximum a posteriori) search algorithm that is described in an appendix.