Evaluating potential for data assimilation in a flux-transport dynamo model by assessing sensitivity and response to meridional flow variation

TL;DR

This study assesses how quickly a flux-transport dynamo model responds to changes in meridional flow speed, which is crucial for improving solar cycle predictions using data assimilation techniques.

Contribution

It quantifies the response time of the dynamo model to flow variations and shows that response time peaks at four to six months, independent of flow shape or amplitude.

Findings

Model's response time peaks at 4-6 months for one-year flow changes.

Response time is unaffected by magnetic diffusivity in advection-dominated regime.

Flow shape and amplitude do not influence the response time estimate.

Abstract

We estimate here a flux-transport dynamo model's response time to changes in meridional flow speed. Time-variation in meridional flow primarily determines the shape of a cycle in this class of dynamo models. In order to simultaneously predict the shape, amplitude and timing of a solar cycle by implementing an Ensemble Kalman Filter in the framework of Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART), it is important to know the model's sensitivity to flow variation. Guided by observations we consider a smooth increase or decrease in meridional flow speed for a specified time (a few months to a few years), after which the flow speed comes back to the steady speed, and implement that time-varying meridional flow at different phases of solar cycle. We find that the model's response time to change in flow speed peaks at four to six months if the flow change lasts for one year. The longer the changed flow lasts, the longer the model takes to respond. Magnetic diffusivity has no influence in model's response to flow variation as long as the dynamo operates in the advection-dominated regime. Experiments with more complex flow variations indicate that the shape and amplitude of flow-perturbation have no influence in the estimate of model's response time.