Analysis of the 2004 Venezuela Referendum: The Official Results Versus the Petition Signatures

TL;DR

This paper analyzes the 2004 Venezuelan referendum, highlighting discrepancies between official results and petition signatures, and critiques the effectiveness of the audit process amid concerns of electoral distortion.

Contribution

It provides a detailed comparison of official referendum results with petition signatures and previous elections, revealing potential irregularities and questioning audit effectiveness.

Findings

High correlation between signatures and opposition votes

Audit process deemed ineffective and suspicious

Detected distortions compared to previous elections

Abstract

On August 15th, 2004, Venezuelans had the opportunity to vote in a Presidential Recall Referendum to decide whether or not President Hugo Ch\'{a}vez should be removed from office. The process was largely computerized using a touch-screen system. In general the ballots were not manually counted. The significance of the high linear correlation (0.99) between the number of requesting signatures for the recall petition and the number of opposition votes in computerized centers is analyzed. The same-day audit was found to be not only ineffective but a source of suspicion. Official results were compared with the 1998 presidential election and other electoral events and distortions were found.