Reconstructed Total Solar Irradiance as a precursor for long-term solar activity predictions: a nonlinear dynamics approach

TL;DR

This paper presents a nonlinear dynamics approach to predict long-term solar activity by reconstructing total solar irradiance from sunspot data, enabling forecasts of multiple future solar cycles.

Contribution

It introduces a method to predict several upcoming solar cycles using reconstructed total solar irradiance as a proxy, extending previous short-term predictions.

Findings

Successful long-term predictions of solar cycle activity.

Reconstructed irradiance provides reliable proxies for future cycles.

Method improves understanding of solar activity dynamics.

Abstract

Total solar irradiance variations, about 0.1% between solar activity maximum and minimum, are available from accurate satellite measurements since 1978 and thus do not provide useful information on longer-term secular trends. Recently, Krivova et al., 2007 reconstructed, using suitable models, the total solar irradiance from the end of the Maunder minimum to the present, based on variations of the surface distribution of the solar magnetic field. The latter is calculated from the long historical record of the sunspot numbers using a simple but consistent physical model. There are many classes of proposed prediction methods for solar cycles behavior, based on different direct solar activity indices or on various valuable proxies. In particular, the precursor based methods, utilize a given proxy index to predict the future evolution of solar activity. Long-term time series of sunspot numbers, allow us to reliably predict the behavior of the next solar cycle, few years in advance. In previous papers we predicted the full-shape curve of future solar cycles, using a proper non-linear dynamics method applied to monthly smoothed sunspot numbers. In particular, we proved that a sufficiently reliable phase-amplitude prediction of the current solar cycle 24, requires the knowledge of the initial increasing phase of the cycle spanning at least two years. The aim of the present paper is to give a robust long-term prediction of solar cycle activity, many years in advance and for at least three successive solar cycles using the same nonlinear method and, as solar activity proxy index, the reconstructed total solar irrandiance.