Probing into the effectiveness of self-isolation policies in epidemic control

TL;DR

This paper evaluates the effectiveness of self-isolation policies in controlling epidemic spread using a network-based SIS model, revealing that control is only feasible under ideal compliance conditions.

Contribution

It introduces a network model with evolving topology to analyze the impact of quarantine policies on epidemic control, highlighting limitations of current strategies.

Findings

Control of epidemic spread is only possible with perfect compliance.

Standard policies may be ineffective under realistic compliance rates.

Network topology changes influence epidemic controllability.

Abstract

In this work, we inspect the reliability of controlling and quelling an epidemic disease mimicked by a Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model defined on a complex network by means of current and implementable quarantine and isolation policies. Specifically, we consider that each individual in the network is originally linked to two types of individuals: members of the same household and acquaintances. The topology of this network evolves taking into account a probability $q$ that aims at representing the quarantine or isolation process in which the connection with acquaintances is disrupted according to standard policies of control of epidemics. Within current policies of self-isolation and standard infection rates, our results show that the propagation is either only controllable for hypothetical rates of compliance or uncontrollable at all.