On statistical researches of parliament elections in Russian Federation, 04.12.2011

TL;DR

This paper discusses the use of statistical methods to detect and estimate electoral falsifications in the 2011 Russian parliamentary elections, emphasizing the limitations and proper application of such techniques.

Contribution

It demonstrates that statistical analysis can identify minimum levels of election falsification but warns against overestimating or making definitive claims beyond mathematical and scientific validity.

Findings

Statistical methods suggest falsifications of about 1-2%

Stronger statistical claims are mathematically and scientifically invalid

Sociological indeterminacy limits the conclusiveness of statistical proofs

Abstract

There is a lot of statistical researches of Russian elections 04.12.2011. The purpose of this activity is to give a mathematical proof of large falsifications and to estimate possible 'real results of elections'. My purpose is to show that 1. Statistical argumentation allows to prove existence of falsifications and to give a lower estimate of falsification, near 1-2 percents. 2. Statistical proofs of stronger statements are incorrect from both points of view of mathematics and of natural sciences. 3. This problem is not a problem of pure mathematics (since it includes strong indeterminacy of sociological nature).