Marathon pacing and elevation change

TL;DR

This paper analyzes how elevation changes affect marathon pacing, proposing models to estimate target paces on hilly courses based on empirical data and energy cost approximations.

Contribution

It introduces a simple model to incorporate elevation changes into marathon pacing strategies, extending previous flat-course pacing analyses.

Findings

Pace slows in four identifiable regions during marathons.

Elevation changes significantly impact pacing and finish times.

Approximate models can help set realistic target paces on hilly courses.

Abstract

An analysis of marathon pacing and elevation change is presented. It is based on an empirical observation of how the pace of elite and non-elite marathon runners change over the course of the marathon and a simple approximation of the energy cost of ascent and decent. It was observed that the pace of the runners slowed in a regular manner that could be broken up into four regions. That observation can be used to project target paces for a desired marathon finish time. However, that estimate fails to take in to account the energetic costs of elevation changes (hills) along the marathon course. Several approximations are made to give a coarse estimate of target paces for marathon run on courses with significant elevation changes, i.e. a hilly course. The 2012 Oakland Marathon course is used as and example of a hilly course and the times of 23 finishers are examined.