On probabilities of Risk type board game combats

TL;DR

This paper analyzes the probabilistic aspects of combat outcomes in the Risk board game, highlighting the significant influence of luck on gameplay results through a detailed probabilistic approach.

Contribution

It provides a probabilistic analysis of Risk combat outcomes, offering insights into how luck impacts game results and quantifying the role of chance.

Findings

Combat outcomes are highly dependent on dice roll probabilities

Luck plays a dominant role in determining game results

Probabilistic models can predict the likelihood of victory in battles

Abstract

Risk is a well-known turn based board game where the primary objective is nothing less than the world domination. Gameplay is based on battles between armies located in adjacent territories on the map of Earth. The combat's outcome is decided by rolling dice, and therefore a probabilistic approach can be taken. Although several results are derived, the conclusions suggest that the gameplay is highly depending on luck.